Navigating limits

If you bet +EV long enough, you will eventually be limited on soft books. The goal is not to avoid them forever. The goal is to delay them and, if possible, keep strong volume after they happen.

How to delay limits

No strategy is perfect, and every book is different. However, these are some potential ways to blend into the casual bettor crowd.

1) Main lines vs alt lines

  • Main lines usually look more "normal" from a risk perspective.
  • Constantly firing niche alt lines, especially at sharp numbers, can cause limits faster.
  • You can still bet alts, but avoid making your profile 100% alt-line sniping.

2) Account priming

Account priming refers to initially acting like a casual bettor to throw off the sportsbook. This may include taking some degen parlays, or consistently taking -EV bets. The goal is to convince the sportsbook that you aren't an advantage player, and over time start shifting your volume to +EV plays.

3) Market open vs close

Opening lines offer some of the best +EV spots because less information is available which causes the most disagreement between sportsbooks. However, consistently taking +EV plays well before match time can raise red flags for the sportsbook. It may be more beneficial to take plays closer to match start time, even if that means sacrificing some value.

4) CLV (closing line value)

CLV is measured by comparing what odds you bet on vs the closing odds (the moment the match starts). Positive CLV is the goal in +EV betting because it means you are getting value on your bet. However, CLV is also the easiest way for sportsbooks to figure out if you're a +EV bettor. Because of this, sometimes bettors will pass on high CLV plays and also take -CLV plays occassionally to blend in better (similar to account priming strategies).

5) Live betting

Live betting is arguably the best way to delay limits because there is no measure of CLV, which means books have a much harder time figuring out if you're taking +EV plays.

Conversely, it is harder to execute +EV strategies live betting because lines move quickly and it can be more difficult to determine which side of the market is +EV. Because of this, many bettors prefer to arbitrage bet for a smaller guaranteed profit.

What to do after being limited

1) Build your account network (P2, P3, etc.)

This is the primary way professional sports bettors continue after being limited. P2, P3, etc refers to using other people's accounts (family, friends, etc) to place more +EV bets. Doing this may not be illegal but is against the sportsbooks' TOS, so proceed with caution and understand how to navigate this space before attempting.

2) Use in-person kiosks

Kiosks exist at many retail sportsbooks/casinos and are a great way to overcome limits if you live nearby. You can place bets anonymously which means you are only subjected to the general kiosk limits and not your personal account limits. This is a viable option if you live near any soft sportsbooks and don't mind commuting to place +EV bets.

3) Keep using limited accounts

Some books are still valuable after limiting. For example, Hard Rock still allows $10 bets on limited accounts. With deep link support this may still be worth your time to place bets with them.

4) Get more volume down creatively

Sometimes there are opportunities to get a little more volume down on limited accounts. Here are some examples.

  • Explicit duplicate lines: Many books offer alt player props (e.g. 10+ points, 15+ points, etc). If the player's main line is Over 9.5 points and that shows up as +EV, check the alt line too for double value.
  • Implicit duplicate lines: For example, if a book offers Over 0.5 Total Bases and Over 0.5 Hits, those bets are equivalent. Take both if one shows up as +EV.
  • Ladders: If a player to score 20+ points shows up as +EV, then it's likely 25+ points and 30+ points are +EV on that sportsbook too.
  • Derivatives: Similar to ladders, but more implicit. For example, if a player to record 20+ Points + Rebounds is +EV on a book, then 25+ Points + Rebounds + Assists is likely +EV too. Different markets, but they are correlated.
  • Limit resets: Some books (e.g. BetRivers) will reset your limit on a bet if the odds change, or if it becomes the next day.

5) Look for shorter odds

Books will often limit longshots e.g. +400 more than heavy favorites e.g. -400. You may be able to get down a lot more volume on favorites after being limited on certain books.

Conclusion

Limits are inevitable, but can be slowed. Assess alternative options after being limited. Understand when a book is no longer worth your time due to heavy limits.